The real estate market in the Phoenix area has been making (both local and national) headlines since 2004. Until the market fully returns to "normal" (not sure what “normal” really is at this point in time) we are no doubt destined to continue to be a focus market.
To start, let''s compare some numbers September 2012 with September 2011:
*Active listings with no offers - 14,405 versus 19,216 last year - down 25% but up 7% from August.
*Pending listings - 10,125 versus 11,508 last year - down 12% - and down 3% from August
*Monthly sales - 7,573 versus 8,470 last year - down 11% - and up 3% from August
*Monthly Average Sale Price per square foot - $97.45 versus $79.64 last year - up 23% - and down .7% from August
Greater Phoenix foreclosures (REO) are once again below 14% of the monthly sales total. At their peak in February 2009, they claimed a whopping 71% of the Phoenix area monthly real estate sales. The current 14% is now a minimal and hardly talked about number anymore. To put this in perspective, there were 12 times as many foreclosed homes available for sale in January 2009 as there are today. Short sales (not bank owned, rather homeowners selling – usually with bank approval – at a price lower than the current mortgage amount owed - comprised 30.4% of all sales in August. This figure appears to be now holding steady after an initial drop in the first quarter.
The only real shift in REO’s (bank owned homes) is in regards to Bank of America, who now appears to have changed their policies and are taking back homes rather than primarily selling them at auction to investors as they (and nearly all lenders) did. We now expect to see them re-enter the market as listings - no doubt to encourage higher prices as well as owner occupant purchasers. Even with BofA composing 25% of the foreclosure pipeline, the numbers still will not hugely impact our market supply.
Normal (traditional homeowner) sales continue to rise to 56.1% of sales. This demonstrates that “sidelined Sellers” are finally re-entering the market as prices are beginning to allow traditional Sellers to sell once again. This number will continue to improve as the distress sales drop. If you are considering selling your home, now is the time to do so!
The supply of available homes is increasing which is traditional for this time of year (when our winter visitors return) - but we are seeing more significant increases particularly in Queen Creek and Maricopa - the very epicenter of the “price crash”. The luxury market is seeing steady supply with some small areas decreasing in supply. The luxury market is always weaker in the summer so Sellers in that market should see some movement now that our cooler weather has arrived.
It will be interesting to see if builders respond quickly to the lowered supply of resale homes and begin adding to the supply through increased building. Their challenges remain finding vacant lots at competitive prices and qualified workers who vacated our crashing job market.
What does this mean to the homeowner? The increased values should encourage Sellers to begin to monitor values to see if they now can enter the marketplace again. A supply/demand analysis for your neighborhood gives thebest accuracy in a marketplace that is shifting, and as always, I am available to help you. Be wary of using county assessor valuations or online website estimates for determining value (i.e., Zillow); much of this data is extrapolated from unreliable and outdated sources. The Phoenix Metro real estate market has changed significantly in the last several months and old data – even as recent as 3-4 months ago – is stale and no longer valid in determining value.
I am always available and a trusted source to answer your questions – whether you are thinking of buying, selling, or leasing a home. Please call (480-239-3023) or email (john.groves@azmoves.com) me at anytime or visit my website: www.arizonfamilyrealestate.com.
*Active listings with no offers - 14,405 versus 19,216 last year - down 25% but up 7% from August.
*Pending listings - 10,125 versus 11,508 last year - down 12% - and down 3% from August
*Monthly sales - 7,573 versus 8,470 last year - down 11% - and up 3% from August
*Monthly Average Sale Price per square foot - $97.45 versus $79.64 last year - up 23% - and down .7% from August
Greater Phoenix foreclosures (REO) are once again below 14% of the monthly sales total. At their peak in February 2009, they claimed a whopping 71% of the Phoenix area monthly real estate sales. The current 14% is now a minimal and hardly talked about number anymore. To put this in perspective, there were 12 times as many foreclosed homes available for sale in January 2009 as there are today. Short sales (not bank owned, rather homeowners selling – usually with bank approval – at a price lower than the current mortgage amount owed - comprised 30.4% of all sales in August. This figure appears to be now holding steady after an initial drop in the first quarter.
The only real shift in REO’s (bank owned homes) is in regards to Bank of America, who now appears to have changed their policies and are taking back homes rather than primarily selling them at auction to investors as they (and nearly all lenders) did. We now expect to see them re-enter the market as listings - no doubt to encourage higher prices as well as owner occupant purchasers. Even with BofA composing 25% of the foreclosure pipeline, the numbers still will not hugely impact our market supply.
Normal (traditional homeowner) sales continue to rise to 56.1% of sales. This demonstrates that “sidelined Sellers” are finally re-entering the market as prices are beginning to allow traditional Sellers to sell once again. This number will continue to improve as the distress sales drop. If you are considering selling your home, now is the time to do so!
The supply of available homes is increasing which is traditional for this time of year (when our winter visitors return) - but we are seeing more significant increases particularly in Queen Creek and Maricopa - the very epicenter of the “price crash”. The luxury market is seeing steady supply with some small areas decreasing in supply. The luxury market is always weaker in the summer so Sellers in that market should see some movement now that our cooler weather has arrived.
It will be interesting to see if builders respond quickly to the lowered supply of resale homes and begin adding to the supply through increased building. Their challenges remain finding vacant lots at competitive prices and qualified workers who vacated our crashing job market.
What does this mean to the homeowner? The increased values should encourage Sellers to begin to monitor values to see if they now can enter the marketplace again. A supply/demand analysis for your neighborhood gives thebest accuracy in a marketplace that is shifting, and as always, I am available to help you. Be wary of using county assessor valuations or online website estimates for determining value (i.e., Zillow); much of this data is extrapolated from unreliable and outdated sources. The Phoenix Metro real estate market has changed significantly in the last several months and old data – even as recent as 3-4 months ago – is stale and no longer valid in determining value.
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